BP Statistical Review shows strong global energy demand and rising emissions

11 June 2019

BP has released its annual Statistical Review of World Energy, showing that the global economic growth experienced in 2018 was fueled by a strong increase in energy consumption, and resulted in a corresponding increase of CO₂ emissions. The highest contributors to the global primary energy growth were China (34% of the 2018 growth), followed by the United States (20%) and India (15%). US consumption expanded at its fastest rate for 30 years.

Primary energy consumption increased by 2.9% in 2018. Growth was the strongest since 2010 and almost double the 10-year average of 1.5% per year. Carbon emissions grew by 2.0%, the fastest growth for seven years.

“The world is not on a sustainable path. If anything, we are moving further away from it, rather than getting closer,” said Bob Dudley, BP Chief Executive, in a speech at the launch event of the report in London. “There has to be a greater sense of urgency, because the longer carbon emissions continue to rise, the harder and more costly the necessary eventual adjustment to net-zero carbon emissions.”

“Carbon emissions from energy use are estimated to have grown by around 2% last year. That’s roughly the equivalent to carbon emissions associated with increasing the number of passenger cars on the planet by a third. This number is material. This increase stems pretty much directly from the growth in energy demand,” said Spencer Dale, BP Group Chief Economist.

The growth for all fuels increased but growth was particularly strong in the case of gas (168 mtoe accounting for 43% of the global increase). All fuels grew faster than their 10-year averages, apart from renewables, although renewable still accounted for the second largest increment to energy growth (71 mtoe, 18% of the global increase).

In the OECD, energy demand increased by 82 mtoe on the back of strong gas demand growth. In the non-OECD energy demand growth (308 mtoe) was more evenly distributed with gas (98 mtoe) coal (85 mtoe) and oil (47 mtoe) accounting for most of the growth.

Some of the highlights from the BP Statistical Review are:

• Oil:
  • Oil consumption in 2018 grew by an above average 1.4 million barrels per day (mbd) or 1.5%. In an absolute sense, the growth in demand was dominated by the developing world, with China (0.7 mbd) and India (0.3 mbd) accounting for almost two-thirds of the global increase. In the US, oil demand grew by 0.5 mbd its largest increase for well over 10 years and in sharp contrast to the trend decline seen in the decade or so prior to the oil price crash of 2014.
  • The strength in US oil demand in recent years has been concentrated in first gasoline and then diesel, but the increased importance of petrochemicals in driving oil demand growth was also evident in the global product breakdown, with products most closely related to petrochemicals (ethane, LPG and naphtha) accounting for around half of the overall growth in demand last year.
  • Global oil production increased by 2.2 million b/d in 2018 or 2.4% double its 10-year average growth. Growth was heavily concentrated in the US (2.2 million b/d), a record for any country in any year. Most of this growth was due to increases in tight oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Elsewhere production grew in Canada (410,000 b/d) and Saudi Arabia (390,000 b/d) while oil production declined sharply in Venezuela (-580,000 b/d) and Iran (-310,000 b/d).

    

• Natural gas
  • In 2018, both global consumption and production increased by over 5%, one of the strongest growth rates in either gas demand or output for over 30 years
  • Natural gas consumption rose by 195 billion cubic meters (bcm), or 5.3%, one of the fastest rates of growth since 1984. Growth in gas consumption was driven mainly by the US (78 bcm), supported by China which also saw above-average growth of 17.7% (43 bcm), Russia (23 bcm) and Iran (16 Bcm). The US gas consumption increase of 78 Bcm last year is broadly equivalent to the entire gas consumption of the UK.
  • Global natural gas production increased by 190 bcm, or 5.2%. Almost half of this came from the US (86 bcm), which (as with oil production) recorded the largest annual growth seen by any country in history. The US production increase was driven by shale plays in Marcellus, Haynesville and Permian. Russia (34 bcm), Iran (19 bcm) and Australia (17 bcm) were the next largest contributions to growth.
• Coal
  • Coal consumption increased by 1.4% in 2018, the fastest growth since 2013. Growth was driven by Asia Pacific (71 Mtoe), and particularly by India (36 Mtoe). This region now accounts for over three quarters of global consumption, while 10 years ago it represented two thirds. The growth in coal demand was the second consecutive year of increases, following three years of falling consumption. As a result, the peak in global coal consumption which many had thought had occurred in 2013 now looks less certain.
  • World coal production increased by 105 million tonnes of oil equivalent or 3.2%, the fastest rate of growth since 2011. Production rose by 56 mtoe (3.6%) in China and 23 mtoe (6.9%) in the US. Interestingly, the increase in US production came despite a further fall in domestic consumption, with US coal producers instead increasing exports to Asia.
• Nuclear energy, hydroelectricity, and renewables
  • Nuclear consumption increased by 2.4% in 2018. China (10 mtoe) accounted for almost three quarters of global growth. In fact, nuclear consumption in China has more than quadrupled in the last 10 years. Japan (5 mtoe) had the second largest increase. The largest declines were recorded in South Korea (-3 mtoe) and Belgium (-3 mtoe).
  • World hydroelectric consumption rose by 3.1%, slightly above the 10-year average (2.8%), with China (8 mtoe) and Brazil (4 mtoe) posting the largest contributions.
  • Renewable power consumption (excluding hydro; including wind, solar, geothermal, and wave power) grew by 14% in 2018, providing 9% of the world’s electricity. Wind power provided 4.8% of global power, with a growth rate of 14%. Solar provided 2.2% of global power, and grew by 29% in 2018.

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy