Cornell study examines critical metal demand for electric vehicles
17 April 2023
A new study by a team from the Cornell University and Paul Scherrer Institute has analyzed the impact of automotive electrification on demand for several critical metals. The study, published in Nature Communications, found that as nations electrify their transportation sectors through mid-century, the demand for battery-grade lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and platinum will climb steeply—likely causing substantial economic and supply chain challenges [5749].
In the paper, the researchers examined 48 countries that committed to decarbonize their road transportation through increasing use of electric vehicles (EV), including the United States, China, and India. The study quantified critical metals requirement in electrifying the light- and heavy-duty passenger and freight road fleets in multiple regions, considering a complete range of major EV technologies, including BEVs, PHEVs, HEVs, and FCEVs.
The estimated demand increase for the above metals is:
- Lithium: In a scenario where 40% of all vehicles are electric by 2050, the need for lithium globally will increase 2,909% from the 2020 level. If 100% of vehicles are electric by 2050, the need for lithium more than doubles, to 7,513%. From 2010 to 2050, in a scenario where all vehicles are electric, the annual demand for lithium globally increases from 747 tonnes to 2.2 million tonnes.
- Nickel: The demand for nickel eclipses other critical metals, as the global need ranges from 2 million tonnes (+2,127%) where 40% of vehicles are electric, to 5.2 million tonnes (+5,426%) where all vehicles are electric.
- Cobalt: The annual demand for cobalt in the two scenarios ranges from 0.3 million tonnes (+1,039%) to 0.8 million tonnes (+2,684%).
- Manganese: The demand for manganese in the two scenarios is 0.2 million tonnes (+1,099%) and 0.5 million tonnes (+2,838%).
- Platinum: The demand for platinum group metals under the two respective scenarios will grow by 131% and 179%.
The mineral resource barrier is aggravated by a highly uneven distribution of critical metals and minerals. Metal resource mining is centralized in many politically unstable countries such as Chile, Congo, Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa, while metal refining and processing is dominated by China. The replacement of combustion engine vehicles with EVs would require long-term, uninterrupted access to these foreign resources.
In the paper, the researchers note caution on the electrification of heavy-duty vehicles, which require more critical metals than other vehicles. Although they account for only between 4% and 11% of the total road fleet in some countries, battery-related critical metals used in heavy-duty electric vehicles would account for 62% of the critical metal demand in the decades ahead.
The conclusions of the paper suggest that replacing the existing, combustion engine based transportation system with electric vehicles may not be possible on the envisioned scale and within the envisioned timeframe. This is in agreement with other major analyses—for instance, an in-depth study by the Geological Survey of Finland (GTK) found that, due to resource barriers, replacing the existing fossil fuel powered system using renewable technologies will not be possible for the entire global human population [5227].
Source: Cornell University